Correlation between rise time and proof time
I've seen variations of this question asked here before, and the responses generally seem to be along the lines of, "that's a meaningless question," "it's too simplistic," "there are too many other variables," etc., so I expect to get similar responses here, but I'll ask it anyway.
I'm wondering if there is any rough correlation between initial rise and proof times. Let's say that on two separate occasions, I bake a loaf using the same formula. (Let's just say for the sake of argument it's a boule, all bread flour, 70% hydration.) The first time, it rises fully (in my judgment, based on its size, appearance, etc.) in 3 hours. The second time, it rises more slowly; maybe the starter wasn't as vigorous, maybe there's some other factor at work, who knows? But it take 6 hours to get to the same point as the first dough. My question is, once I shape them, would it be reasonable to expect the second one to take longer to proof as well? Or since they were both at the same point (again in terms of volume, puffiness, springiness, etc.) when they were shaped, would they presumably both take about the same amount of time to proof? (Assume the ambient temperature and humidity levels are the same on both occasions.)
To ask the question in a slightly different form: let's say I'm following a published formula. It estimates the rise time at x hours for the dough to double in volume and be ready to shape. After x hours have elapsed, my dough clearly isn't ready, so I give it longer. It ends up taking twice as long as what the formula called for, but finally it looks like the risen dough as described and displayed in the formula, so I shape it. The formula calls for a 1-hour proof. Should I presume that since my dough needed a longer rise time, it will also need more proof time than what the formula says?
I realize that how long is long enough has to be determined by the baker, based on the appearance and feel of the dough, and can't be reduced to a simple number. It's ready to go in the oven when it's ready, and knowing when it's ready comes from experience. But my question is, in general, would longer rise times likely mean longer proof times? Shorter? The same? Or is there no relationship at all?
Start from after the initial soak (my terminology - about an hour). The number and length of rise times will vary - too many variables to list or determine anything - temp is the main factor. The difference you're seeing is most likely weakness - as in the starter. Enjoy!
I think it is a great question. I don't have a definitive answer but I make the same loaf nearly every week using a home grown starter - sometimes it takes much longer to BF to double in size than other times ( I use a marked straight sided container ) Once it has doubled, I find that FP is pretty similar in time frames regardless of how long BF took, though slightly longer for longer BF. Again, that is just using one type of flour and one recipe and process, so can't say it will be the same for you.
I would tend to think that - given the ambient conditions are the same, which I find unlikely in the real world - two doughs at the same level of fermentation/maturity would have similar proof times. If they have both doubled in volume, it would be safe to assume that any initial difference in yeast activity that caused the time difference would be compensated by the longer time for multiplication in the less active dough.
However, if day to day or week to week variation in fermentation times are caused by variations in ambient temperature, I would expect a positive correlation between bulk fermentation times and proof times.
I was thinking the same: same stage, same activity. However, I have found that with sourdough, probably because of the LAB, the doughs can behave very differently depending on how long they have taken to reach that stage/activity. The longer it has taken the slacker the dough will be and will seem to be less active.
My loaves started to improve significantly, and the process and product became much more consistent, after I started to pay more attention to building a very active preferment, whether a100% hydration liquid levain or more of a biga style preferment.
The pre-ferment absorbs any variation in time to reach the right activity level so that the bulk ferment then is pretty uniform in terms of time taken and dough structure after that. You know that once the preferment has reach a certain level of activity it will then behave the same once incorporated into the bulk ferment. Of course, ambient temperature is a factor, but mine is very stable most of the year.
You're right, a weak starter (with low yeast activity relative to the LAB activity) would probably make a worse dough at the end of bulk fermentation than a strong one with a good yeast/LAB balance. This is a different effect than, for example, if you use your starter when it's too young and hasn't reached peak yeast population yet.
That makes sense, I think, but I'm not sure. If two loaves have doubled in volume, and are identical in appearance, but it took them different lengths of time to get to that point, do they in fact have the same or nearly the same levels of yeast activity?
My principal reason for asking the question is scheduling. I'm wondering, if my dough took a long, slow rise, like overnight at room temp, once I shape it, does that mean I can safely leave it to proof at room temp for several hours, without being concerned that it's going to overproof? Or should I assume that because the dough is well risen, the yeast is pretty active, so I should be prepared to bake it relatively soon after shaping?
With enough time, knowledge and intellectual capacity I could try to think this through logically, but I'm not sure that I have enough of any of those at this point.
Do whatever to get 2 or 3 rises - that's doubling for each rise. How long that is depends on the starter - weaker = longer - simple really. A strong starter takes some time. Don't take the time - don't get the starter. Enjoy!
Microbiology was my least favorite subject when I studied food science, so I don't claim to be a yeast expert. That said, my understanding is that yeast will only multiply up to a certain population density, after which they stop producing more yeast cells and only produce more CO2. I believe this is regulated at least in part by oxygen concentration, so it relies on the dough not being manipulated (punched down, shaped, etc) for the assumption to be valid.
As an example, while many of the most popular sourdough bakers use ~20% levain, I prefer to do an overnight room temperature bulk ferment, so I modify those recipes to use only 5% levain. I let it ferment for 10-12 hours, and then after I shape it I treat the proof the same as if I had done a 4-5 hour bulk ferment with a higher inoculation rate (straight in the fridge for another 10-12 hours, then score and bake).
Again, this all depends on the only variable being yeast concentration/activity. If the variation you're seeing is because the water is cold or your kitchen is cold, then I will expect proof times to be extended. If you really are getting wildly variable fermentation times with the exact same dough temperatures, I would try to focus on maintaining your starter more consistently so that you're using it at the same activity level every time.
I would expect that the poof of a divided dough, say by four would proof faster due to. Temperature retention/ absorbsion difference. The large mass of dough would take longer due to the greater mass.
Will F
This chart may not answer your entire question, but it does provide some insight into the time/temperature part. I don't remember the source (may have been here) as I've had it for a couple years...and the few times I have referenced it, it appeared to be relatively accurate. Though it doesn't answer your question specifically, it may be useful ...
Predicted-Fermentation-TimeRev1.jpg
There's no exact formula that links the rising time and the testing time. It depends on various factors, like different recipes, yeast types, ambient temperature, and other variables.